Docking process of UAV Autonomous Refueling is a critical issue during the docking phase of autonomous aerial refueling (AAR), and the successful docking between the probe and drogue need higher probability for an aerial refueling system. To cope with this issue, a novel and effective model based on the theory of stochastic process crossing target area is proposed. In order to ensure its accurate and easy application, according to prior information and assumptions for the movements of the probe related to the drogue, the probe-drogue docking success probability is converted to the probability of the probe located in the circle area of drogue. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the pointing error have been considered which makes the model of the docking success probability more accord with the actual situation. simulations were conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. This model provides theoretical support for the design and verification of AAR’s control system.

Autonomous aerial refueling, UAV, stochastic process, docking success probability

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